Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.579545 1.791387 2.017234 2.275504 2.562233 2.870349 3.226044
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.349050 1.649624 1.990936 2.405521 2.893704 3.448422 4.124498
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.138592 1.496026 1.926839 2.480329 3.168119 3.989918 5.040872
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.011203 1.423086 1.948338 2.659362 3.587635 4.748326 6.297812
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.835942 1.262906 1.839734 2.662785 3.791306 5.266578 7.319588
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.707021 1.145080 1.771001 2.710237 4.058991 5.896707 8.553783
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.590847 1.026303 1.684218 2.721509 4.279263 6.487487 9.797895
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.520151 0.964912 1.672692 2.840388 4.666519 7.348593 11.500392
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.454036 0.899365 1.645343 2.931717 5.023539 8.201390 13.271899
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.390486 0.826469 1.595227 2.980054 5.319402 8.991120 15.021968
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.338388 0.764405 1.554042 3.037446 5.635658 9.840752 16.937086
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.280232 0.678572 1.456857 2.984301 5.761289 10.398692 18.441874
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.226040 0.590865 1.345762 2.898582 5.835691 10.904576 19.950730
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.192157 0.539516 1.297383 2.924514 6.113863 11.782005 22.156398
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.159959 0.483910 1.230429 2.904652 6.306280 12.531383 24.213918
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.142463 0.460403 1.228975 3.018891 6.769016 13.804523 27.289240
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.116121 0.405927 1.147007 2.950115 6.863568 14.416261 29.241784
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.097697 0.368003 1.096697 2.943121 7.082462 15.279463 31.720389
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.081069 0.329949 1.038153 2.907857 7.237449 16.033202 34.054318
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.071989 0.313120 1.031449 2.994271 7.663461 17.351100 37.548547
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.063237 0.294458 1.016058 3.057152 8.044404 18.609889 41.018646
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.054477 0.272547 0.986845 3.080465 8.337904 19.713642 44.262001
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.047348 0.254170 0.964174 3.117481 8.667360 20.918131 47.788509